David Moulton: Bucs take big-time gamble in choosing Schiano

David Moulton

Greg Schiano?

Holy Butterballs, Batman!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a credibility crisis with their fanbase, as well as a team that is young and immature.

Oh yeah, and the NFC South with the Saints, Falcons and Cam Newton entering Year 2 in Carolina may be the toughest division in the league.

So obviously if given the choice of hiring someone with a proven track record of playoff appearances and some playoff wins (Marty Schottenheimer, Mike Sherman, Brad Childress) or taking a leap of faith on a college coach, common sense screamed, “Play it safe!”

Greg Schiano is not safe.

The Glazer family and general manager Mark Dominik have, as basketball analyst Bill Raftery is fond of saying, ... onions!

Or they’ve lost their mind.

Because this is total hit or miss. Brilliant or a debacle. Nothing in between.

Even if Schiano produces 8-8 seasons, the apathy that will greet this hire would turn the mediocrity on the field into a disaster at the box office. And that would be crippling for a team that already has enjoyed nearly two full years of local TV blackouts.

The irony is that the Miami Dolphins were the ones three weeks ago that said they would try to hire “the next young Don Shula.”

In 45-year-old Greg Schiano, the Bucs hope they have found at least the next Jim Harbaugh. Because in between the dynasty that Jimmie Johnson/Barry Switzer built and maintained in Dallas more than 15 years ago and Jim Harbaugh this year with San Francisco, not one college coach came to the NFL and won so much as 10 games in a season. Seven college guys went 82-137 in the NFL since 2000.

For that reason Schiano is a big risk, but he is highly regarded in coaching circles. In 2000, Rutgers was the worst BCS conference program in the country. A 68-67 record in 11 seasons doesn’t look all that impressive, but Miami and Michigan did offer him their head coaching jobs in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

As far as the NFL is concerned, none other than Bill Belichick is a big fan of Schiano’s work.

With that said, Schiano had his issues at Rutgers. He was stubborn to a fault, did not have a good track record developing young quarterbacks and, like Raheem Morris, was his own defensive coordinator (which may not be the way to go in the NFL).

On the ninth anniversary of Tampa Bay winning Super Bowl XXXVII, the Bucs went back to their roots. For it was 36 years ago they hired a college guy, USC head coach John McKay. Within four years he had the Bucs in the NFC championship game.

Of course before then, he and the expansion Bucs also lost their first 26 games.

History says this will not end well for Schiano and Tampa Bay.

But NFL history does not have many quarterbacks drafted in the sixth round start five Super Bowls either, like Tom Brady.

Like Brady, Greg Schiano is going to have to be that rare college talent who can overcome the odds and obstacles to make it in a league where Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban failed.