Brent Batten: The poll to end all polls

BRENT BATTEN

Which poll is your favorite?

Is it the Insider Advantage poll taken on Jan. 29 of 646 likely voters showing Mitt Romney with 36 percent, Newt Gingrich with 31 percent and Rick Santorum with 12 percent?

Or maybe it's the Jan. 28 Rassmussen Report poll of 750 likely voters that has Romney ahead with 44 percent, Gingrich in second with 28 percent and Santorum, with 12 percent barely ahead of Ron Paul's 10 percent.

Of course, you can't ignore the Quinnipiac poll of 539 likely voters done between Jan. 27 and Jan. 29. It shows Romney with 43 percent, Gingrich with 29 percent, and Santorum and Paul tied with 11 percent.

In South Florida, it would be a mistake to ignore the Miami Herald/Mason Dixon poll of 500 likely voters which shows Romney at 42 percent, Gingrich at 31 percent, Santorum at 14 percent and Paul at 6 percent.

A Dixie Strategies/First Coast News Public Opinion survey of 2,567 likely voters between Jan. 23 and Jan. 25 showed respondents supported Gingrich with 35.5 percent while Romney had 35.1 percent. In that survey, among voters who identify with the tea party movement, 31.3 percent had a "very positive" view of Romney and 56.9 percent had a "very positive" view of Gingrich. Santorum enjoyed the most support in that subgroup. Nearly 60 percent of tea party sympathizers gave him a "very positive" rating.

Not all polls are created equal. The Dixie Strategies survey reports a margin of error of less than 2 percent while the Miami Herald poll's margin for error is 4.5 percent.

These polls are all well and good but there's one that stands out in my estimation.

It surveys the sentiments of not just likely voters, but those that could be described as extremely likely voters.

The sample size has yet to be determined but its margin of error is practically zero.

Its results will be collected over two weeks, with an especially large number of participants taking part on Jan. 31.

In addition to gauging support for the Republican presidential candidates, it will examine voter mood on other, more local issues, such as city council races in Naples and Bonita Springs, which also has a contest for mayor, and tax referendums in East Naples, Golden Gate and Immokalee. Democrats and independents in those communities can elect to take part in the poll.

It is being conducted by respected pollsters Jennifer Edwards in Collier County and Sharon Harrington in Lee County.

So proficient are these pollsters that their results are likely to be tabulated Tuesday evening, after the surveys stop at 7 p.m. And the results will be available for public inspection soon after.

While this poll is the most definitive of all, it does require some effort. To participate, you'll need to make it to the site designated on your voter registration card between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.. Be sure to bring photo and signature identification with you. They don't want any tomfoolery skewing the results. Acceptable forms of identification include a Florida driver's license, DMV issued Florida ID card, U.S. Passport, debit or credit card, military ID, student ID, retirement center ID, neighborhood association ID or public assistance ID.

You've heard it said by candidates, usually the ones trailing in the polls, that polls don't mean anything.

This one does. It should be your favorite.

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Comments » 4

Naplestango writes:

My favorite is the new smart-phone poll.
Voters apparently are unaware that their smart-phones will track how they vote...even before they do it.
Why do you think SP jumped in for NG? She now realizes the power of MR backed by the MTC... With TS as a running mate they are unstoppable!!!

Naplestango writes:

in response to Naplestango:

My favorite is the new smart-phone poll.
Voters apparently are unaware that their smart-phones will track how they vote...even before they do it.
Why do you think SP jumped in for NG? She now realizes the power of MR backed by the MTC... With TS as a running mate they are unstoppable!!!

And Don't worry about BO. The currency trader has set him up as chief head of NORML for life! He'll be partying with the "non-inhaler"

volochine writes:

Brent Batten is using the primary election to use as a poll. Cute. Unique journalism. I think Mike Royko did this article in the early 1970's.

Yes, Brent, you are right...the actual election will either affirm or disavow the pollsters results.

Are you indirectly saying that we should not poll?

Once again, I am left with the thought of what is Brent thinking?

JustBeachy writes:

The worst of all polls is the NDN exit polling done by unscientific methods and published daily the past few weeks. I find this to be un-democratic, and unehtical reporting. Polls do indeed sway voters and it is not the job of MEDIA to conduct them.

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